Finance Committee Agenda and Packet 2025 10 16

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ECONOMIC UPDATE CM CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT • Recent economic data suggest slower growth in 2025 and greater market uncertainty as the effects of fiscal policy unfold. Inflation pressures have eased, though core levels remain above the Federal Reserve's target, while tariffs continue to cloud forecasts. Signs of a softer labor market are emerging, prompting expectations that the Fed will move cautiously toward policy normalization. Given the economic outlook, we expect gradual normalization of monetary policy and a steeper yield curve. • The Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds Rate a quarter percentage point to the range of 4.00 — 4.25% upon conclusion of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The move was telegraphed by the Fed and in line with market expectations. Stephen Miran was the only opposing vote in the 11-1 decision as Governor Miran called for a larger 50 basis point rate cut. Chair Powell said concerns over signs of a softening labor market prompted the policy shift. Policymakers also updated their economic forecasts penciling in two additional quarter -point cuts through year-end. • The US Treasury yield curve flattened in September, as the 2-year Treasury yield declined 13 basis points to 3.57%, the 5-year Treasury also down 13 basis points to 3.66%, and the 10-year Treasury yield declined 14 basis points to 4.12%. The spread between the 2-year and 10- year Treasury yield points on the curve decreased to +54 basis points at September month -end versus +61 basis points at August month - end. The spread between the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury yield one year ago was 14 basis points. The spread between the 3- month and 10-year Treasury yield points on the curve was +21 basis points in September versus +8 basis points in August. 10/73 3