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Economic and Market Assessment City of Louisville, CO
<br /> Figure 24: Retail Supportable Square Feet
<br /> Opportunity Midpoint Supportable
<br /> Category Gap/Surplus Sales/SF Square Feet
<br /> Grocery stores $135,508,887 $326 415,671
<br /> Beer, wine &liquor stores $5,334,744 $234 22,847
<br /> Health & personal care stores $15,128,568 $235 64,377
<br /> Department stores $77,697,000 $128 609,388
<br /> Other general merchandise stores $18,501,956 $128 145,113
<br /> Clothing&clothing accesory stores $97,735,696 $215 454,585
<br /> Electronics &appliance stores $66,198,479 $244 271,862
<br /> Furniture stores $28,482,843 $209 136,608
<br /> Home furnishing stores $8,125,805 $209 38,973
<br /> Bldg materials, garden equip &supply stores $30,817,737 $145 213,272
<br /> Sporting goods, hobby, music. inst. $15,068,973 $219 68,966
<br /> Book, periodical & music stores $4,484,497 $219 20,524
<br /> Office supplies, stationery &gifts $6,144,270 $208 29,540
<br /> Food services &drinking places $164,370,667 $295 558,135
<br /> Total $673,600,122 3,049,860
<br /> Source:ESRI Business Services;BizStats;TischlerBise
<br /> Oversupply of retail has not been an unusual condition in markets nationwide in recent years, but the
<br /> economic downturn has had an adverse effect on many retailers, ranging from small independents to
<br /> national chains. Under the circumstances, adjustments in overserved markets may involve more retail
<br /> closures, while any significant retail development in the foreseeable future will likely only occur in
<br /> burgeoning or underserved markets. Economic forces will continue to edge markets towards equilibrium
<br /> with respect to supply and demand.
<br /> The figure below calculates the number of years it will take to reach market equilibrium in the subject
<br /> trade area, based on retail sales and projected population growth. Total retail sales of $3.2 billion
<br /> divided by retail sales per capita (Boulder County) results in a supportable population of 234,901, which
<br /> exceeds the population in the 15-minute driveshed by 20,509, indicating that population segment is
<br /> drawn from outside of the trade area. The population within the trade area is projected to reach the
<br /> equilibrium point of 234,901 in an estimated 9 to 10 years, which could trigger new retail development.
<br /> However,this could occur in any number of locations within the trade area.
<br /> These findings suggest that the demand for new retail development at the community shopping center
<br /> scale and higher will be soft in Louisville and the greater trade area for the next 9 to 10 years.
<br /> Nonetheless, Louisville has done a commendable job in creating a destination market for retail in its
<br /> historic downtown, and could potentially support additional food & beverage and boutique retail in a
<br /> suitable, mixed use environment over the next decade.
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