City Council Agenda and Packet 2013 05 07 - PG 113 - ATTACHMENT #4

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Economic and Market Assessment City of Louisville, CO RESIDENTIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT Market Characteristics As Figure 9 showed, Louisville saw 241 residential units constructed between 2000 and 2004 and 106 units constructed between 2005 and 2010. The number of households increased 5.1 percent from 2000 to 2010. However, the cities of Superior and Broomfield, which are adjacent to Louisville, experienced increases in households of 33 percent and 55 percent, respectively, over the same period. In real numbers, the combined number of households added in this period in the proximal jurisdictions of Louisville, Superior, Broomfield and Lafayette equaled 12,684, or 1,057 annually. Residential building permits issued annually are a relatively accurate indicator of residential demand characteristics, particularly when a larger market area is analyzed. The figure below show annual permits for Louisville, Broomfield, and Lafayette (Superior's were negligible). Taken in aggregate, the local residential market was fairly robust up to 2009, and appears to emerge from the downturn in 2011. The 98 permits issued in Louisville in 2011 probably reflect the opening of North End and Steel Ranch, and the introduction of new residential product to the marketplace, demonstrating Louisville's continued appeal as a place to live. Figure 27: Residential Building Permits Jurisdiction 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average Louisville 68 10 94 36 17 13 98 48 Broomfield 771 1082 1060 827 160 232 229 623 Lafayette 198 94 33 190 109 35 252 130 Source:U.S. Census The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) has prepared population projections for various jurisdictions in the State, which were updated in 2011. The figure below shows the calculation of household (occupied housing unit) absorption based on DRCOG projections and 2010 average household sizes for each peer geography. Based on this data, we project demand for housing units in Louisville of 43 annually through 2035. Figure 28: Calculation of Future Residential Demand Total Annual 2010 Avg. Annual HH Geography 2010 2035 Increase Increase HHSize Absorption City of Louisville 18,376 20,985 2,609 104 2.41 43 City of Lafayette 24,453 29,737 5,284 211 2.62 81 City of Superior 12,483 13,583 1,100 44 2.78 16 City of Broomfield 55,889 100,916 45,027 1,801 2.60 693 Boulder County 294,567 388,835 94,268 3,771 2.44 1,545 Source:US Census;Denver Regional Council of Governments 32