Water Committee Agenda and Packet 2015 04 03

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2 WATER DEMAND AND HISTORICAL DEMAND MANAGEMENT 2.4.3 Baseline Forecast Baseline demands were developed based on a combination of anticipated demographic and land use changes in the City of Louisville. In the baseline forecast all demands (indoor and outdoor) increase proportionally with the population at the current rate of usage. For the residential portion of the water demand, this assumes that new customers joining the system will use water identically to the current customer base. A major assumption for this baseline forecast is for the commercial users where it is assumed that water use at the Phillips 66 property will increase linearly from 0 MG in 2015 to 250 MG in 2032, when the site reaches full occupancy and usage potential. The fundamental purpose of the baseline forecast is to assess the adequacy of future supplies under reasonable "worst case" conditions (that is, no water efficiency gains) and to demonstrate the anticipated impact of water efficiency in the City from both passive and active conservation programs. Key assumptions in the baseline forecast are as follows: • Baseline water use patterns and forecast starting point (Table 11) • Population forecast (Table 10) • Water use in all sectors both seasonal and non - seasonal increases proportionally with the population • Annual bulk water usage of 4.8 MG that does not increase or decrease each year • Outdoor water use impacts from temperature and precipitation in 2032 are similar to 2014 Baseline treated water production in 2014 was estimated to be 1,413.7 MG and increases by 525 MG, resulting in a total baseline demand of 1,938.4 MG (5,949.72 acre -feet) in 2032. 2.4.4 Passive Conservation Forecast The passive conservation water demand forecast to 2032 includes the impact of anticipated passive efficiencies from State of Colorado legislation, and federal plumbing codes and standards on a sector -by- sector basis for both indoor and outdoor use. An example of a passive water conservation effort that is accounted for in this forecast would be the passing of Colorado Senate Bill 2014 -103, which phases out the sale of low- efficiency lavatory faucets, showerheads, flushing urinals, and tank -type toilets. Key assumptions in the passive conservation forecast are as follows: • Baseline water use patterns and forecast starting point (Table 11) • Population forecast (Table 10) • Outdoor water use in all use categories increases proportionally with the population • Outdoor water use impacts from temperature and precipitation in 2032 are similar to 2014 • 1 percent per year decrease in residential indoor (inside and outside City limits) per capita water use (from 47.1 gpcd in 2014 to 39.3 gpcd in 2032), which represents a continuing pattern of the past 15 years • 1 percent per year decrease in multifamily residential indoor per capita water use, which represents a continuing pattern of the past 15 years • 0.5 percent per year decrease in per capita commercial indoor (inside City limit) use from ongoing replacement of fixtures, appliances, and equipment and new State of Colorado legislation (Senate Bill 14 -103) assuring high- efficiency plumbing in new construction • 1 percent per year increase in per capita commercial indoor (outside City limit) water use to account for additional growth potential in the sector • Annual construction water demand of 4.8 MG that does not increase or decrease each year WBG071714052946BS0 2 -17