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SUBJECT:
<br />DATE:
<br />2018 RECOMMENDED BUDGET AND 2018-2021 LONG-TERM PLAN
<br />SEPTEMBER 26, 2017
<br />PAGE 2 OF 24
<br />forecasts by the Public Works Department. All remaining projections are based on the
<br />Finance Department's forecasts using simple trend analysis.
<br />Revenue Category
<br />Taxes:
<br />Sales Tax
<br />Property Tax
<br />Use Tax - Consumer
<br />Use Tax - Building Materials
<br />Use Tax - Auto
<br />Franchise Taxes
<br />Lodging Tax
<br />Specific Ownership Tax
<br />Summary of Revenue Assumptions for Major Revenue Sources
<br />2015 - 2021
<br />2416 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
<br />Actual Estimate Rec. Bdgt Projection Projection Projection
<br />12,896,098
<br />3,559,536
<br />1,847,243
<br />2,009,321
<br />1,357,306
<br />1,057,233
<br />500,223
<br />191,644
<br />14,185,700
<br />3,621,628
<br />1,874,950
<br />1,146,479
<br />1,425,184
<br />1,123,570
<br />510,239
<br />198,359
<br />15,163,776
<br />5,628,661
<br />1,994,412
<br />1,542,310
<br />1,554,719
<br />1,135, 350
<br />520,430
<br />203,310
<br />15,618,690
<br />5,115,280
<br />2,034,310
<br />851,350
<br />1,593,580
<br />1,144,420
<br />530,840
<br />208,399
<br />16,087,250
<br />5,487,160
<br />2,074,990
<br />666,610
<br />1,641,380
<br />1,153,790
<br />541,460
<br />214,640
<br />16,569,870
<br />5,521,490
<br />2,116,490
<br />383,970
<br />1,690,629
<br />1,163,469
<br />552,299
<br />221,989
<br />Percent of Change
<br />2416 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
<br />6.3% 10.0% 6.9% 3.0%
<br />16.3% 1.7% 55.4% -9.1%
<br />27.4% 1.5% 6.4% 2.0%
<br />26.7% -42.7% 34.5% -44.8%
<br />- 1.1% 5.0% 9.1% 2.5%
<br />- 2.2% 6.3% 1.0% 0.8%
<br />6.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
<br />10.2% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5%
<br />3.0% 3.0%
<br />7.3% 0.6%
<br />2.0% 2.0%
<br />-21.7% -42.4%
<br />3.0% 3.0%
<br />0.8% 0.8%
<br />2.0% 2.0%
<br />3.0% 3.0%
<br />Licenses & Permits:
<br />Construction Permits 1,564,367 722,740 792,120 616,270 472,680 367,270 60.3% -53.8% 9.6% -22.2% -23.3% -22.3%
<br />Min or Buildin -Related Permits 406,374 290,159 295,950 301,870 307,910 314,979 40.3% -28.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
<br />Intergovernmental Revenue:
<br />Highway Users Tax
<br />State Lottery
<br />Marijuana Tax
<br />Charges for Services:
<br />Water User Fees
<br />Water Tap Fees
<br />Wastewater User Fees
<br />Wastewater Tap Fees
<br />Storm Water User Fees
<br />Solid Waste User Fees
<br />Recreation Center Fees
<br />Golf Course User Fees
<br />Developer Impact Fees
<br />Fines & Forfeitures:
<br />Court Fines
<br />626,946 645,750 652,210 658,730 665,320 671,970 10% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
<br />223,514 201,169 201,160 291,160 201,160 201,169 19.3% -10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
<br />113,192 152,810 175,730 193,390 212,630 233,890 65.1% 35.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
<br />5,885,924 6,022,880 6,101,470 6,261,340 6,445,770 6,635,730 25.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9%
<br />7,089,743 4,349,700 5,497,220 1,576,030 1,098,700 84,900 153.3% -38.6% 26.4% -71.3% -30.3% -92.3%
<br />2,999,685 3,283,299 3,413,920 3,617,710 3,833,720 4,975,679 11.4% 9.5% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.3%
<br />1,376,709 1,152,299 569,580 173820 32,800 32,800 260.7% -16.3% -50.6% -69.5% -81.1% 0.0%
<br />693,809 726,620 760,510 813680 854,000 888,129 -1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 7.0% 5.0% 4.9%
<br />1,399,199 1,435,290 1,478,480 1,519,790 1,562,250 1,605,909 4.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
<br />1,952,396 1,920,930 1,669,310 2,077,470 2,116,070 2,148,439 2.8% -1.7% -13.1% 24.5% 1.9% 1.5%
<br />1,422,245 1,601,879 1,666,620 1,635,790 1,721,800 1,741,659 85.7% 12.6% 4.0% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2%
<br />1,517,611 461,644 1,237,930 560,070 84,810 42,499 42.8% -59.6% 168.2% -54.8% -04.9% -50.4%
<br />166,668 179,170 184,5
<br />190,090 193,890 197,770 29.2% 7.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.0% 2.0%
<br />Hrgf NO-eted categories inc?ude impacts from new Recreetron Center seles tax. effective 2018.
<br />Based on discussions with Council at the August 8 Budget Retreat, staff has increased
<br />the projections for 2017 sales tax revenue from 8.5% over 2016 to 10% over 2016.
<br />Staff has also increased the sales tax projection for 2018 from 0% over 2017 to 2.5%
<br />over 2017.
<br />In addition, as noted in the preceding table, the 2018 increases in sales and use tax
<br />revenue include the impacts from the new 0.15% Recreation Center tax, which will
<br />become effective on January 1, 2018. This is a General Fund revenue source, but
<br />restricted to "operating and maintaining the Louisville Recreation/Senior Center and
<br />pool facilities at Memory Square Park."
<br />This new tax is projected to generate approximately $860,000 of sales and use tax
<br />revenue in 2018. Since the Recreation Center upgrades will not be completed until late
<br />CITY COUNCIL COMMUNICATION
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