Planning Commission Agenda and Packet 2019 02 14

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McCaslin Corridor the study concludes that approximately 20% of the market demand for new retail demand (30,000 sq. ft.) is likely to occur in the corridor. Other supportive uses, such as office, residential and entertainment could help make retail viable within any particular development. Staff ran the City's fiscal impact model under three scenarios to better understand the potential implications to City services as a result of changing the phasing. The first scenario shows the full absorption (time to build and occupy the space) of both commercial buildings in two years, which matches the fiscal analysis conducted when the City originally approved the PUD and GDP amendment in 2016. The second scenario reflects absorption of Building F between three and five years and Building E between eight and 10 years, which represents a possible scenario allowing the commercial phasing as proposed if both buildings end up being constructed. The third scenario reflects absorption of Building F between three and five years with Building E never being developed as a "worst case" scenario. With all scenarios, the commercial development is modeled with 30% office space and 70% retail space. Fiscal Model Inputs Scenario 1 I Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Residential Units 32 _ 32 32 Market Value $600,000 _ $600,000 $600,000 Construction Value $480,000 $480,000 $480,000 Household Income $90,000 $90,000 $90,000 Absorption years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 Commercial Building E Market Value/Sq. Ft. $250 $250 $250 Construction Value/Sq. Ft. $175 $175 $175 Retail Sales/Sq. Ft. $200 $200 $200 Absorption year 2 years 8-10 no development Commercial Building F Market Value $250 $250 $250 Construction Value $175 $175 $175 Retail Sales/Sq. Ft. $200 $200 $200 Absorption year 2 years 3-5 years 3-5 The fiscal model table on the following page provides the 20-year totals (per $1,000) for revenue, expenditures and net fiscal impact. The model shows that all scenarios provide a net positive fiscal impact. Scenario 1 estimates a 20-year positive fiscal impact of $2.2 million or an average of $111,200 per year. Scenario 2 estimates a 20- year positive fiscal impact of $1.8 million or an average of $91,300 per year. Scenario 3 estimates a 20-year positive fiscal impact of $954,000 or an average of $47,000 per year Planning Commission February 14, 2019 — Foundry Phasing Amendment Page 4 of 6 22