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THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON BIAS <br />"Cognitive biases are widely known to skew judgment, and some have particularly pernicious <br />effects on forecasting. They lead people to follow the crowd, to look for information that confirms <br />their views, and to strive to prove just how right they are" <br />- Paul J. H. Shoemaker and Philip E. Fetlock, Harvard Business Review, May 2016 <br />Thinking Fast and Slow <br />Humans have two ways of thinking: fast and slow. In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel <br />Kahneman refers to them as System 1 and System 2. <br />We tend to rely on "fast thinking" to navigate our world. Fast thinking is on and operating <br />whenever we're awake. It is a nearly automatic thought process based upon intuition and pattern <br />recognition. Fast thinking enables us to determine where sounds are coming from, helps detect <br />hostility in someone's voice, allows us to read billboards and do simple math, understand simple <br />sentences, and drive a car on an open road. <br />Fast thinking, which Kahneman calls <br />System 1 thinking, is our highly efficient <br />standard mental operating system. By <br />contrast, System 2 thinking is slow and <br />deliberate. It demands focused attention <br />and a lot of calories. The focused, <br />deliberate thinking of System 2 takes <br />time and energy, which is why it's <br />reserved for big projects and ignored <br />during simple processing tasks. After a <br />day of slow thinking — like doing <br />strategic planning or driving on the other <br />side of the road in a foreign city — you <br />feel brain dead. Because you are. System 2 <br />thinking is hard work. <br />INTUITION IIF <br />PATIENCE <br />INVOLUNTARY CONTROL CONCENTRATION <br />BRAIN <br />SYSTEMS <br />INNATE SPEED ANALYTICS EFFORT <br />SKILLS <br />REFLEX REASON <br />3 <br />