Finance Committee Agenda and Packet 2023 05 18

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Economic Update ■ Economic trends have been decelerating along with tighter fin anciaIcon ditions and restrictive monetary policy. Recent data suggests positive but below trend growth this year. Although the pace of job growth is moderating, labor markets remain solid, and the U.S. consumer has demonstrated resiliency. Market participants and the Federal Reserve are maintaining very divergent views regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. Given the cumulative effects of tighter monetary policy and stress in the banking sector, we believe the Federal Reserve is likely near a pause in their rate hiking campaign. If moderate growth continues, we believe the Fed will likely maintain the Federal Funds rate in restrictive territory until inflationary pressures subside. ■ At the March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.75 — 5.00%. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the committee's focus on bringing down inflation to their 2% target; however, the committee softened language about "ongoing increases" in rates in the prior statement to "some additional policy firming may be appropriate". The statement also emphasized that the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient" and acknowledged the tightening of financial conditions. The Chandler team believes the FOMC is likely near a pause in their rate hiking cycle. ■ In March, the yield curve inversion narrowed. The 2-year Treasury yield plummeted 79 basis points to 4.03%, the 5-year Treasury yield plunged 61 basis points to 3.58%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 45 basis points to 3.47%. The inversion between the 2-year Treasury yield and 10-year Treasury yield declined to -56 basis points at March month -end versus -90 basis points at February month -end. There was no spread between the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury yield one year ago — the yields were approximately equal. The inversion between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries widened to -128 in March from -89 basis points in February. The shape of the yield curve indicates that the probability of recession is increasing. 3 C 16/76