City Council Agenda and Packet 1973 02 20

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•f C • • • i chticirlainat "I" iw Mr M ref coma M I/M/M oft WPM •M410110 .w.11e 3.r«ww February 6, 1973 ~Me `144 P . Leon A. wurl City Administrator City Hall, 749 Main Street Louisville, Colorado 80027 Dear Mr. Yuri: The County Planning Staff reviewed the proposed annexation of Parkwood Subdivi- sion to the City of Louisville as requested. The intent of the Annexation Act of 1965 C.R.S. 139-21-1 et seq. was to encourage natural and well-ordered devvispment of municipalities in the state and to extend municipal government services and facilities to eligible areas which form a part of the whole com- munity. The referral letter from you stated that the developer intends to develop 488 multi-family housing units and 154 detached single-family housing units once the land is annexed. I have consulted with various county depart- - ments and reviewed available material, it: Comprehensive Plan and U.S. Census Information in analyzing the effect of this proposed development on the City of Louisville. The analysis does not attempt to determine policy but attempts, objectively, to delimit the effect of this proposed development on the City. Population Trend The population of the City of Louisville as recorded by the U.S Census Bureau in their decennial enumerations from the 1940 enumeration was inserted into a statistical analysis (linear regression) to determine the future growth trend. This type of analysis evens out the decennial enumeration fluctuations so that a trend becomes readily apparent. Graph fl entitled. "Population Trend for Louisville, Colorado" illustrates graphically the trend in growth. The popu- lation projection utilizing this method computed that the population of the City would '* 2,534 in 1980. Over the last thirty years the City has an aver- age decennial rate of growth of 6.45. Confidence intervals based on (1) one standard error (analogous to standard deviation) was computed and resulted in + 156 people from the regression line. This means that 68.3% of the observed ;• point (population recorded by census enuieeration) will fall within the limits. Therefore, in 1980 there is a 68.35 chance that the population of Louisville will be somewhere between 2,371 and 2,533. With the growth rate of the past ten years taken into account the actual population will fall probably within the upper portion of the confidence interval. If the City of Louisville continues to grow at the rote that was recorded in the 1960 decade, then the population in 1980 could be 2,800. This projected figure Is beyond the upper limits of the confidence interval and even beyond the upper limits of the second standard error (deviation) which was computed to be 2,599. The growth of the Denver Metropolitan area and the City of Bouldzr will influence the growth of the City of Louisville. when other suburban com-