Finance Committee Agenda and Packet 2024 10 17

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ECONOMIC UPDATE CM CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT • Recent economic data suggests positive but slower growth this year fueled by consumer spending. While the consumer has been resilient, declining savings rates, growing credit card debt, higher delinquencies, and a moderating labor market pose potential headwinds to future economic growth. Inflationary trends are subsiding, but core levels remain above the Fed's target. The labor market is showing signs of cooling, reflecting an improved balance between supply and demand for workers. Given the cumulative effects of restrictive monetary policy and tighter financial conditions, we believe the economy will gradually soften and the Fed will continue to lower rates at a measured pace through this year with the ability to move more aggressively should the employment data warrant. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered the first rate cut of the easing cycle at the September meeting. Although a reduction in the Fed Funds Rate was widely anticipated, the magnitude was somewhat of a surprise, as market participants were split between whether the FOMC would cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated previous statements acknowledging that monetary policy has shifted into a more balanced approach addressing price stability and full employment in tandem. The Fed released the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which now forecasts a substantially lower median Fed Funds Rate expectation among Fed Governors in 2025 due to lower inflation expectations and a higher projected unemployment rate. We believe the Fed will continue to lower rates at a measured pace through this year with the ability to move more aggressively should the employment data warrant. • The US Treasury yield curve shifted lower in September following the 50 basis points rate cut by the FOMC mid -month. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 28 basis points to 3.64%, the 5-year Treasury dropped 15 basis points to 3.56%, and the 10-year Treasury yield declined 12 basis points to 3.78%. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield points on the curve began to normalize to +14 basis points at September month -end versus -2 basis points at August month -end. The spread between the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury yield one year ago was -47 basis points. The inversion between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries ended the month of September at -85 basis points. 3 22/87