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YOY (%) Change <br />CONSUMER <br />60.0% <br />50.0% <br />40.0% <br />30.0% <br />20.0% <br />10.0% <br />0.0% <br />-10.0% <br />-20.0% <br />-30.0% <br />Retail Sales YOY % Change <br />11 1.1■111 111 hII <br />II 111111111111■_■..■1.11_NIB NNE ■■111 <br />1 <br />✓dy C// ✓dy ✓C,� <br />\-30 'O c),I �d <br />Source: US Department of Commerce <br />160 <br />140 <br />120 <br />100 <br />w <br />80 <br />-aa 60 <br />c <br />40 <br />20 <br />Recession <br />CAR <br />CHANDLASSET MANAGEMENT <br />Consumer Confidence <br />0 <br />/ / ' ic <br />✓d/2 (°6 6'6 Pb 6 e6 t6 6'6 ?6("6,, , <br />45. > 09 1.1 , 10, lS 1j s) ,1 6 �' P6S <br />Source: The Conference Board <br />All time high is 144.70 (1/31/00); All time low is 25.30 (2/28/09) <br />The Advance Retail Sales report for January fell short of expectations, dropping 0.9% month -over -month following a 0.7% increase in <br />December. The weaker January retail sales estimates versus December were likely due to the upward revisions to the strong holiday <br />shopping season and consumers front loading purchases in anticipation of tariffs. On a year -over -year basis, Retail Sales grew 4.2% in <br />January versus 4.4% in December. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 98.3 in February from an upwardly <br />revised 105.3 in January. Consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions fell modestly, while their future outlook <br />for income, business, and labor market conditions dipped sharply. While the consumer has been resilient, low savings rates, growing <br />credit card debt, higher delinquencies, and a moderating labor market pose potential risks to future spending. <br />7 <br />16/143 <br />