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The Planning Context
<br />Market Opportunities
<br />The City of Louisville contracted with Tischler Bise to com-
<br />plete a demographic and economic market study for the City
<br />which is included as an appendix to the Comprehensive Plan.
<br />The following is a brief overview of the market opportunities
<br />of the major land uses in the City. The Market Study does not
<br />imply the development projections are to be achived in the
<br />Plan.
<br />Retail
<br />The Economic and Market Assessment indicates there is a sur-
<br />plus of approximately 3 million square feet of retail within a
<br />15 minute drive shed of Louisville. The assessment goes on to
<br />suggest it will take between nine and ten years of population
<br />growth in the trade area to fill this excess retail space. Based
<br />on these findings, the study concludes that the demand for
<br />new retail development at the community shopping center
<br />scale and higher (100,000 SF and higher) will be soft in Louis-
<br />ville for the next nine to ten years.
<br />Although the study concludes that demand for larger scale re-
<br />tail in the trade area will be weak for the next ten years, there
<br />are opportunities to capitalize on emerging market trends to
<br />regain lost retail base. Areas like Downtown and the Revital-
<br />ization District are positioned well to capitalize on emerging
<br />market trends favoring mixed use walkable environments.
<br />The zoning is in place and infrastructure improvements like
<br />the South Street Gateway and the HWY 42 Gateway Project
<br />will enable these areas to develop in line with emerging mar-
<br />ket trends. However, the zoning and current development
<br />patterns in Centennial Valley and the McCaslin Boulevard
<br />corridor provide little flexibility for new development pat-
<br />terns. Residential mixed use is not currently permitted, and
<br />the regulations encourage larger lot, automobile- centered
<br />development.
<br />Office /R &D /Flex Space
<br />The majority of Louisville's office, research and development,
<br />and flex space is located in either the Colorado Technology
<br />Center (CTC) or Centennial Valley. There are approximately
<br />2.3 million square feet of occupied space in CTC and a great
<br />deal of vacant land zoned for additional industrial develop-
<br />ment including office, research and development, and flex
<br />space. The market study suggests the CTC is positioned
<br />well in the region and will continue to experience moder-
<br />ate growth for the foreseeable future. Centennial Valley has
<br />approximately 425,000 square feet of vacant office space,
<br />and the market study indicates it is not likely that additional
<br />speculative office space will be built in this area until the
<br />vacant space is occupied.
<br />Residential
<br />The City of Louisville's residential housing market is con-
<br />strained by a scarcity of developable land. As currently zoned,
<br />the City does not have additional land for greenfield residen-
<br />tial development within city limits. The Alkonis parcel in the
<br />northeast corner of the City is the last significant parcel of
<br />land identified for annexation with the potential for residen-
<br />tial development. Opportunities for infill residential develop-
<br />ment are constrained by a lack of land supply and current
<br />zoning regulations which restrict residential development or
<br />do not allow it at all.
<br />Despite a scarcity of residential land for development, the
<br />Economic and Market Assessment indicates there is signifi-
<br />cant demand for residential units in Louisville, as evidenced
<br />by the rapid and sustainable sales of homes at Steel Ranch
<br />and North End. Opening up additional areas for residential
<br />development, either through rezoning, or revised develop-
<br />ment regulations, would likely result in additional residential
<br />development as demand is quite strong.
<br />Fiscal Analysis
<br />Staff worked with an economic and fiscal consultant, Tischler
<br />Bise, to assess the fiscal impacts of the Comprehensive Plan
<br />over the next 20 years. The complete study is included as an
<br />appendix to this plan. At build out, the preferred Framework
<br />will produce a balanced amount of residential units, and
<br />retail, industrial, and office square footage. However, over
<br />the next 20 years the market will only construct a portion of
<br />each of these build out scenarios. Additionally, some of the
<br />newly constructed square footage and residential units will
<br />be added in greenfield locations, while other units and square
<br />footage will be constructed in infill locations. The following
<br />table outlines the additional square footage and residential
<br />units that the fiscal study projects could be built in the next
<br />twenty years.
<br />Greenfield development and infill development have differ-
<br />ent fiscal impacts on the city. For example, a new residential
<br />subdivision on the outskirts of town will require the construc-
<br />tion of new roads that will need to be maintained by the city,
<br />and may require additional police resources. An infill site
<br />will likely not need additional roads. The City's current fiscal
<br />model does not account for the potential savings of infill
<br />development. The fiscal study attached to this plan includes
<br />cost adjustments to Operating and Capital Costs for infill de-
<br />Use Net New
<br />Single Family Residential (Units) 224
<br />Green =ieid
<br />lnfill
<br />141
<br />83
<br />Multi - Family Residential (Units) 957
<br />Greenfield
<br />infill
<br />273
<br />694
<br />Retail (Sq. Ft.)
<br />200,000
<br />Greenfield
<br />infill
<br />25,000
<br />175,000
<br />Industrial (Sq. Ft.)
<br />375,000
<br />Green=eld
<br />1nfill
<br />375,000
<br />Office (Sq. Ft.)
<br />450,000
<br />Green: aeId
<br />250,000
<br />infill 200,000
<br />20 Year Market Forecast
<br />Source: Source: City of Louisville; TischlerBise
<br />velopment. Based on the discount assumptions in the report,
<br />Tischler Bise completed an analysis of operating and capital
<br />fiscal impacts for the 20 year build out. The model indicates
<br />the proposed land use mixture in this comprehenisve Plan is
<br />essentially fiscally neutral. Annual operations revenue will
<br />be slightly under expenditures by approximately $93,000 and
<br />that annual capital budget will experience a slight surplus
<br />of approximately $115,000 annually. These are rough as-
<br />sumptions based on one out of countless possible build -out
<br />scenarios.
<br />City of Louisville, Colorado
<br />Fiscal Impact Analysis
<br />Summary of Annual
<br />Operating and Capital Estimates
<br />OPERATING SUMMARY
<br />Revenue
<br />Expenditures
<br />Total
<br />CAPITAL SUMMARY
<br />Revenue
<br />ExlauiiUituius
<br />Total
<br />8
<br />Total
<br />2.171.664
<br />2.264,780
<br />(93.116)
<br />8
<br />8
<br />87.996
<br />,58.349
<br />$
<br />117.647
<br />Stability and Change
<br />The three largest land uses in the City are: residential, parks
<br />and open space, and vacant or undeveloped. Together these
<br />uses comprise approximately three - quarters of the land in the
<br />City. On the properties that have been developed, residential
<br />makes up more than half of the built square footage in the
<br />City, followed by industrial and office, together totaling about
<br />one - quarter of the City's built square footage.
<br />The Louisville Municipal Code (LMC), Chapter 17 - Zoning, dic-
<br />tates the amount of development allowed within Louisville.
<br />Staff analyzed the LMC with respect to each lot to determine
<br />how much development is allowed in addition to what cur-
<br />rently exists. This analysis shows a large portion of the City is
<br />entitled to additional development.
<br />1ro.
<br />1 \., 1 NAV
<br />Min. Dev
<br />Low Dev ( >5k SF)
<br />Mod. Dev (5 to 50k SF)
<br />■ Max. Dev (50k SF <)
<br />Areas with Substantial Buildout Capacity
<br />1 A
<br />gimpft
<br />f. AIP k it
<br />alkAl
<br />Most of the entitled development is within retail corridors
<br />along South Boulder Road and McCaslin Boulevard; special
<br />office and industrial districts of Centennial Valley, the Colo-
<br />rado Technology Center (CTC), and Phillips 66; and within
<br />the Downtown and the HWY 42 Redevelopment district. It
<br />should be noted, the analysis simply indicates what additional
<br />development is allowed and not what the retail, office, and
<br />residential markets can absorb.
<br />Several variables influence the likeliness of property develop-
<br />ing or redeveloping. One is the ratio between the building
<br />Louisville, Colorado
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